Conservative divisions over Brexit have deepened ahead of today’s key votes as cabinet ministers warned Theresa May to change course. The prime minister is being pressured on all sides ahead of another momentous week, with speculation mounting that she would call a snap general election if her fourth attempt to pass her Brexit deal fails.
Cabinet minister David Gauke yesterday said the UK was facing a “national crisis”. He warned Ms May she could not ignore the will of parliament if MPs unite around a customs union during the second round of “indicative votes” today.
But some 170 Brexiteers, including 10 ministers, were piling the pressure on Ms May over the weekend to leave the EU within weeks – with or without a deal.
And at least half a dozen Tory MPs were also preparing to row in behind a confirmatory referendum plan. This option secured the backing of the highest number of MPs during the first round of indicative votes on Wednesday.
Last night the European Commission president Jean-Claude Juncker added pressure on the prime minister by saying he would prefer an agreement in the coming days.
In an interview with Italian state TV RAI, Mr Juncker said: “We have had a lot of patience with our British friends but patience is coming to an end. So far we know what the British parliament says no to, but we don’t know what it might say yes to.”
Downing Street has made it clear that Ms May will bring her Brexit deal back to the Commons for last-ditch attempt, despite her third attempt ending in humiliation on Friday. But with little hope of winning over core Brexiteers or the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP), Ms May now faces calls to either leave without a deal, call an election or unite MPs behind a much softer exit.
Justice Secretary Mr Gauke said Ms May must consider a plan by veteran Tory Ken Clarke for a customs union – which came closest to securing a majority in the last ballot. “I think she would need to look very closely at that,” he told the BBC’s Andrew Marr Show. “If parliament is voting overwhelmingly against leaving the European Union without a deal but is voting in favour of a softer Brexit, then I don’t think it’s sustainable to ignore parliament’s position and therefore leave without a deal.”
Mr Gauke said Brexit had become a “national crisis” and warned Tory MPs that they may have to accept a “second or third choice” as the party does not have the numbers to push its manifesto pledges through parliament. He also restated his commitment to resign if the prime minister pursued a no-deal Brexit.
His comments are likely to infuriate Brexiteers, who believe a customs union does not deliver on the promise of the referendum. Ms May has also repeatedly rejected the idea. Mr Gauke said: “I think the prime minister’s deal does reflect the manifesto position but we, as you say, have been defeated three times. So we do then need to come back and use our judgement as to what is the best way forward.
Defence minister Tobias Ellwood also signalled he would support some kind of customs union plan in today’s votes. He told BBC Radio 4’s The World This Weekend: “Realistically, the Oliver Letwin machine comes back into play [today] and that will probably tilt towards a customs arrangement or customs union support.”
Mr Ellwood went on: “I agree with supporting the PM but in the absence of the PM’s deal not getting through and if you want to honour the referendum result, then yes I would be supporting something along those lines.”
Five ministers voted for the customs union option last week. Cabinet ministers were ordered to abstain but big-hitters such as Philip Hammond and Amber Rudd are understood to be sympathetic to it.
No 10 hopes that pressure will lead to more Brexiteers reluctantly backing Ms May’s deal after it cut the majority against it from 230 and 149 in the first two votes to 58 on Friday.
But Eurosceptic Tories delivered a show of force, signing a letter organised by Commons leader Andrea Leadsom to demand the UK leaves the EU before the end of May, even if no deal is signed. A source involved told The Independent: “The letter reaffirmed our commitment to the manifesto and to the PM’s own determination to seek a short extension to Article 50 that avoids the EU elections.”
Elsewhere, efforts to secure a Final Say vote were bolstered by the suggestion another handful of Tories could back it, including former ministers Richard Harrington and Steve Brine, who both resigned last week.
Sources say several Labour MPs who voted against the proposal last week are also saying they are ready to back this new compromise.
Joanna Cherry, the SNP MP behind a revised plan to cancel Brexit if a no-deal scenario seems inevitable, said she had been approached by “many” Labour MPs who want to back it.
Senior Tories have warned Ms May against calling a snap election, amid fears that the bitterly divided party would be wiped out at the ballot box.
The Conservatives’ deputy chair James Cleverly insisted the party was not gearing up for a snap general election to resolve the Brexit deadlock but admitted it was doing some “sensible and pragmatic” planning. However, adding his voice to a chorus of senior figures pleading with Ms May not to trigger one, he told Sky News’s Sophy Ridge On Sunday: “I don’t think an election would solve anything. Time is of the essence, we have got Brexit to deliver. We don’t want to add any more unnecessary delay.”
He continued: “We have got a minority government in a turbulent time,” adding that it was an “inevitable possibility” that Ms May would lead the party into a snap election – despite a raft of blatant leadership bids from senior Tories such as Dominic Raab and Liz Truss.
Shadow foreign secretary Emily Thornberry signalled Labour could also try to trigger an election by mounting a fresh vote of confidence in the government – but she could not say when the challenge would take place.
A new Deltapoll survey for The Mail on Sunday shows Labour on 41 points, five points ahead of the Tories on 36. The same pollster gave the Conservatives a seven-point lead last month.
Meanwhile, former Tory prime minister Sir John Major warned that if parliament was unable to agree a way forward there could come a point where there would have to be a government of national unity. “I think it would be in the national interest to have a cross-party government so that we can take decisions without the chaos that we’re seeing in parliament at the moment, where every possible alternative is rejected,” he told the BBC.