Conservative leadership frontrunners Boris Johnson and Michael Gove are regarded as untrustworthy by more than half of voters, according to new polling. Some 55 per cent of those questioned by BMG Research for The Independent said they did not trust Mr Gove, and 53 per cent said they did not trust Mr Johnson.
The environment secretary was also rated last in the pack of 11 Tory candidates for strength as a leader, ability to deliver Brexit and understanding ordinary people’s problems. Significantly, the poll suggested Mr Johnson was the candidate best placed to win back voters who had deserted the Tories for Nigel Farage’s Brexit Party.
More than half of Brexit Party backers (52 per cent) said they trusted the former foreign secretary, compared to 26 per cent of voters in general. And 66 per cent of supporters of Mr Farage’s party said they believed Mr Johnson was capable of handling Brexit – streets ahead of fellow Leavers Andrea Leadsom (on 43 per cent) and Dominic Raab (37 per cent).
The poll was released ahead of the formal opening of the contest to find a replacement for Theresa May as Tory leader and prime minister, with nominations due to open and close in a single day tomorrow. Tory MPs, who will whittle down the crowded field to a shortlist of two before going to the 160,000-strong membership, will have a keen eye on the candidate who they believe can stem the haemorrhage of voters to the Brexit Party.
The survey of 1,520 voters confirmed the squeeze faced by both major parties as UK politics is increasingly defined by polarised support for hard Brexit or remaining in the European Union. Labour topped the poll for voting intentions, with 27 per cent (down three points compared to a similar poll a month ago) against the Conservatives’ 26 (down one), once don’t knows were removed. But the Brexit Party has gained on them significantly, up eight points on 18 per cent, with Liberal Democrats on 17 per cent (down one).
An overwhelming 70 per cent of those questioned – including 60 per cent of Tory voters and 73 per cent of the party’s members – thought Ms May was right to stand down. In common with most polls over the past two years, the survey found a majority who would now vote to remain in the EU, by 52 per cent to 48 per cent, once don’t knows were removed.
But asked what the UK should do if the 31 October deadline for Brexit arrives without a deal, some 42 per cent said it should leave with no deal, against 39 per cent who said it should remain in the EU and 9 per cent who said it should ask for a further extension to negotiations. Just 35 per cent said the Brexit Party should be given a role in withdrawal negotiations, as Mr Farage demanded after he came out on top in last month’s European elections, against 45 per cent who said it should be kept out of the talks.
The polling figures will add to the woes of Mr Gove, who revealed yesterday that he had taken cocaine on several occasions as a young journalist. They showed that 50 per cent of those questioned did not regard him as a strong leader, 54 per cent did not think him capable of handling EU withdrawal, and 66 per cent did not believe he understood the problems of people like them.
And there was little sign of him being able to lure defectors back from the Brexit Party, with 58 per cent of its supporters saying they did not trust him and 60 per cent revealing they did not believe him capable of handling Brexit. Mr Johnson was chosen as the best candidate to replace Theresa May by a wide margin, with 17 per cent backing him, ahead of 4 per cent for the home secretary Sajid Javid in second place. But more than half of those questioned did not back any of the contenders or would not say who they favoured.
Leave campaign figurehead Mr Johnson was rated a strong leader by 34 per cent, ahead of Ms Leadsom, Mr Raab and international development secretary Rory Stewart on 24 per cent. But 44 per cent said they did not view Mr Johnson as strong. He was viewed as competent by 28 per cent, behind 34 per cent for Mr Stewart, 32 per cent for Ms Leadsom and 31 per cent for Mr Javid. Some 48 per cent said they did not think Mr Johnson was competent.
The former foreign secretary led the field by a large margin on the question of whether he could handle Brexit, with 31 per cent saying he could, compared to 24 per cent for Ms Leadsom and 23 per cent for Mr Raab. But almost half – 48 per cent – said Mr Johnson would not be able to deal with EU withdrawal. And 60 per cent said he did not understand the problems faced by people like them, against just 15 per cent who said he did.
There were signs that many of the would-be successors to Ms May are struggling with a lack of recognition among the general public. Just 8 per cent of those questioned had heard of the most recent contender, Mark Harper, to announce his candidacy and only 9 per cent recognised the name of Sam Gyimah, the only backer of a second Brexit referendum who is in the race.
BMG Research questioned 1,520 British adults for The Independent between 4 and 7 June